The Arakan Army (AA), one of Myanmar’s most powerful ethnic armed groups, announced on Sunday (11 August) that it will prevent the military government from holding elections in areas under its control, sharply rejecting the junta’s plans to use the polls as a path to stability.

The AA, which has emerged as a formidable challenger to the ruling generals since the 2021 coup, now controls almost all of western Rakhine State 14 of its 17 townships, according to conflict monitors. Spokesman Khaing Thu Kha said the elections, slated for December, would “not benefit the people” and instead “create more confusion.”

“An election without public support will not benefit the people,” he told a livestreamed press conference. “It may be able to be held in the area controlled by the military council, but it will not be allowed in areas controlled by us. The Rakhine people are not interested in the elections.”

The announcement deepens the already volatile situation in Rakhine, where the AA ended a ceasefire with the junta in late 2023 and joined a nationwide offensive with other ethnic forces, inflicting significant territorial losses on the military. In retaliation, the junta has intensified air strikes and imposed a blockade that has effectively cut off the coastal state from the rest of the country.

Rakhine, home to an estimated 2.5 million people, is now one of Myanmar’s most war-affected regions, with around 560,000 displaced, according to UN data. The junta maintains local state-of-emergency measures in most of the state, claiming they are needed to “ensure stability, peace, and the rule of law.”

Analysts warn that the AA’s categorical rejection of the polls will not only undermine the military’s election narrative but also fuel further unrest, potentially triggering more clashes in a region already facing a humanitarian crisis.

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