The U.S. approach to Myanmar’s ongoing conflict has seen a recent shift for a senior U.S. official, who met with a high-ranking member of the Myanmar armed forces in Vietnam last week. Daniel Kritenbrink, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, had a meeting with Kyaw Lin Zaw, a commander in the Myanmar Navy, in Hanoi on June 21-22, according to a source familiar with the encounter.
Kritenbrink arrived in Hanoi on June 21 for a publicized visit, shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin's state visit to Vietnam. Accompanying Kritenbrink were Peter Lohman, Director for Southeast Asia of the U.S. National Security Council, and Susan Stevenson, Charge d’Affaires of the U.S. Embassy in Myanmar.
The U.S. Embassy in Hanoi did not respond to inquiries about the meeting. However, Bangkok based The Irrawaddy cited a State Department spokesperson, stating that Washington continues “to deploy all diplomatic tools” to press the Myanmar military regime to change its course. While the spokesperson did not confirm the meeting between Kritenbrink and Kyaw Lin Zaw, they reiterated that the U.S. “continues to make clear to the military regime – including through limited private channels – that it must end its violence against the people of Burma, release those unjustly detained, allow unhindered humanitarian access, and respect the will of the people for a return to democracy.”
The source indicated that while no breakthrough was achieved during the meeting, the aim was to improve communication, with plans for future meetings. The U.S. seeks to “stabilize the conflict,” end violence, and open dialogue channels with the military. However, significant internal differences within the regime may mean that only some U.S. requirements are met.
Though the State Department spokesperson claimed that U.S. policy towards Myanmar remains unchanged, the face-to-face meeting suggests a possible adjustment in Washington's approach to the conflict that has engulfed Myanmar since the 2021 coup. Previously, the U.S. has focused on economic sanctions and public support for opposition groups like the National Unity Government (NUG).
On the diplomatic front, Washington has deferred to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its Five-Point Consensus peace plan, formulated during a special meeting in April 2021. Despite efforts from three successive ASEAN chairs, the plan has made little progress in resolving the conflict or initiating dialogue.
Interestingly, the source noted that Kritenbrink’s meeting was “no secret in the region” and had the implicit consent of regional countries, including Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand. This suggests that some ASEAN member states might welcome a more active U.S. role as a supplement to the Five-Point Consensus. A Myanmar-focused journalist claimed that the meeting also received approval from China.
A U.S.-led mediation process is likely to face similar obstacles as ASEAN, even without the bloc’s “non-interference” principle. Myanmar's conflict is zero-sum, with neither side willing to negotiate with opponents they view as “terrorists.” Thus, U.S. outreach might be met with skepticism from junta opponents and is unlikely to prompt the military government to heed U.S. calls to end violence and respect democratic will. However, recent reports of growing discontent within the Myanmar military regarding junta leader Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing’s leadership offer another interesting angle on the meeting.
Despite the military government’s rapid loss of territory, especially in Shan and Rakhine states, and the bravery of its opponents, there is no sign that its capitulation is imminent. Given that most wars end with negotiated settlements, maintaining open communication channels might be prudent if the situation on the ground or power dynamics within Myanmar’s armed forces shift.
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