A low-pressure system over the southwest and adjacent west-central Bay of Bengal has been moving northeastwards and, as of Thursday morning, is positioned over the west-central and adjoining southern Bay of Bengal. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a warning that this system is expected to develop into Cyclone 'Remal' by the morning of May 25.

The IMD forecasts that the cyclone will continue its northeastward trajectory, reaching near the coasts of Bangladesh and West Bengal by the evening of May 26. By this time, it is anticipated to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm with wind speeds ranging from 100 to 120 kmph.

"It is very likely to continue to move northeastwards and concentrate into a Depression over central parts of the Bay of Bengal by the morning of May 24. Thereafter, it is very likely to continue to move northeastwards, intensifying further into a cyclonic storm over east-central Bay of Bengal by May 25 morning," the IMD stated.

Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, had earlier cautioned about the development of a low-pressure system in the southern Bay of Bengal during May 22–23. "Sea surface temperatures in the south Bay of Bengal have been 2–3°C warmer than usual for quite some time. Persistently high sea surface temperatures provide a constant supply of heat and moisture, essential for cyclone formation," Koll explained.

He also noted the influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation, an eastward-moving band of clouds, coupled with winds and warm ocean waters, which is currently situated to the south of the Bay of Bengal. "These winds provide a rotational trigger for cyclones to initiate," Koll added.

However, Koll highlighted a potential limiting factor: a rapid northward progression of the monsoon, which could suppress the vertical development of the cyclone. "If that’s the case, this low-pressure area will end up as a monsoon depression bringing rain. Otherwise, it could develop into a weak cyclone of short duration," he said.

As the situation develops, the IMD and climate experts continue to monitor and provide updates on the evolving weather system.

BOB Post